sâmbătă, 29 ianuarie 2011

Niall Ferguson: Empires on the Edge of Chaos

"Sometime over the next decade the US will reach the crossover point at which it will be spending more on debt service, than it is able to spend on defense..."

Throughout history the rise and fall of empires isn't slow or cyclical, as we like to think, but arrhythmic...it mostly happens very, very suddenly. America is a superpower on the edge of chaos, according to economic historian and author Niall Ferguson. US debt levels, he says, and its unwillingness to address the problem, has put it in the same category as other great empires which have collapsed throughout the ages.

Ferguson argues the world is changing. There's the rise of authoritarian China as a super-power; a Keynesian president leading a weakened United States; the re-emergence of democratic India as a great power; the continued decline of Japan; and the probability of continued global economic instability ahead.

Is the rise and fall of empires cyclical or arrhythmic? How does economic profligacy - whether the result of arrogance or naivety - contribute to the downfall of civilisations? Not to be missed, the address will offer a timely review of primacy, leadership, and the complex factors behind the rise and fall of great powers and civilisations.

Niall Ferguson delivered the annual John Bonython Lecture as guest of the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney.

01.    Introduction    
02.    Niall Ferguson Opening Remarks   
03.    Historical Cycles of Empire Decline   
04.    Complexity Theory   
05.    Implications for the United States   
06.    Interest Payments as a Share of US Revenue   
07.    Failure of Perception    
08.    Debt Payment Overtaking Defense Spending   
09.    Q1: Healthcare Reform    
10.    Q2: China's Military Sustainability    
11.    Q3: Gold Investing    
12.    Q4: Political Stability of China    
13.    Q5: Children Teaching You About Debt / Radical Islam    
14.    Q6: Advice to Obama    
15.    Q7: Limits of Keynesian Stimulus    
16.    Q8: Better Leadership in the West    
17.    Q9: Fear of Hyperinflation    

Full Program aici (sariti primele 9 minute).

..and you know the thing about Chaos? It's fair!

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